Let’s take a look at the flattening trade over two different segments at the long end of the yield curve: the one between five and 30 years and the one between 10 and 30 years. Accordingly, they offer reduced initial margin requirements for a spread trade, when compared to outright buying or selling of futures contracts. This trade-off is the so-called Phillips curve relationship. Archived. The Trade War Has Sent The Yield Curve To Its Flattest Since 2007. If the yield curve steepens, this means that the spread between long- and short-term interest rates increases. A steepening yield curve indicates that investors expect stronger economic growth and higher inflation, leading to higher interest rates. A bear flattener causes the yield curve to flatten as short-term rates start to ratchet higher in anticipation of the Federal Reserve (FED) embarking on a tightening monetary policy. When the yield curve is steep, banks are able to borrow money at a lower interest rate and lend at a higher interest rate. Bull Steepener: A change in the yield curve caused by short-term rates falling faster than long-term rates, resulting in a higher spread between the two rates. The offers that appear in this table are from partnerships from which Investopedia receives compensation. For example, you may buy a 6m2y payer, while selling a duration-weighted 6m5y payer. For example, an individual could employ a curve steepener trade by using derivatives to buy five-year Treasuries and short 10-year Treasuries. In this course, you’ll develop a complete set of desk-ready skills for fixed income market participants. To account for this, the trade must be “duration weighted” meaning the amount of bonds traded must be adjusted accordingly. A strategy that is employed by many such participants is “the flattening trade”. All Rights Reserved. Some take a more subtle approach by trading spreads between, for example, CBOT Treasury futures to capitalize on changes in the shape of the yield curve. As Matt goes on to point out, having a hedge against a “stress-loss” that involves the indices could well mean having a curve trade. The Trade War Has Sent the Yield Curve to Its Flattest Since 2007 By . For many active market participants, successful bond trading is not merely picking a point along the yield curve, and speculating whether interest rates will go up or down, but rather to speculate on the shape and slope of the yield curve. One macroeconomic scenario in which using a curve steepener trade could be beneficial would be if the Fed decides to significantly lower the interest rate, which could weaken the U.S. dollar and cause foreign central banks to stop buying the longer-term Treasury. But that bet on the so-called flattening of the yield curve may be in the nascent stages of reversal. The yield curve risk is the risk of experiencing an adverse shift in market interest rates associated with investing in a fixed income instrument. This should cause the yield curve to “flatten out” (see the illustration below). A bear steepener is the widening of the yield curve caused by long-term rates increasing at a faster rate than short-term rates. Since short-term bonds typically have lower yields than longer-term bonds, the curve slopes upwards from the bottom left to the right. In general, when yields are falling, the yield curve will steepen. The Excruciating Choice Governments face an “excruciating choice” between “flattening the (coronavirus) curve” by imposing quarantines and lockdowns and the huge, unprecedented economic impact on the world economy that is already in recession. Traders and investors can, therefore, take advantage of the steepening curve by entering into a strategy known as the curve steepener trade. This strategy can be effective in certain macroeconomic scenarios in which the price of the longer-term Treasury is driven down. With the Fed’s target of 2.5% for inflation and 6.5% for unemployment, it appears that this intervention will not end soon. ©2020 New York Institute of Finance. Curve steepener trades benefit from rising yield differences as a result of an increase in the yield curve of two T-bonds of different maturities. 11.5k. The first task in designing a yield curve trade is to decide how you expect the Treasury yield curve to react to interest rate developments during the term of the trade. This is a normal or positive yield curve. What flattening the curve actually looks like: During the Spanish Flu outbreak, Philadelphia held a parade while St. Louis cancelled public gatherings. When yields are rising, the yield curve will flatten. By doing so, you are now not speculating on changes in the absolute level of interest rates, but rather the yield differential between these two maturities. This so-called flattener trade would pay off if the longer-term yield fell against the shorter one, relative to Sonia. Posted by 6 months ago. The strategy uses derivatives to hedge against a widening yield curve. Bond Trading Strategy: The Flattening Trade. Specifically, a flattener. The spread on both Treasuries is 200 basis points. As an example, in a bull flattening trade, you're betting that rates will decline AND the yield curve will flatten. Here's an example. In other words, the yields on long-term bonds are rising faster than yields on short-term bonds, or short-term bond yields are falling as long-term bond yields are rising. The difference between the short-term and long-term yield is known as the yield spread. As the back leg DV01 is greater than the front leg DV01, one must calculate a hedge ratio to result in a DV01 neutral position. Let's say that on Jan. … If the yield curve steepens, this means that the spread between long- and short-term interest rates increases—i.e. A curve steepener trade is a strategy that uses derivatives to benefit from escalating yield differences that occur as a result of increases in the yield curve between two Treasury bonds of different maturities. The Phillips curve is named after economist A.W. Duration is … The curve steepener trade involves an investor buying short-term Treasuries and shorting longer-term Treasuries. NOB? An article by the New York Institute of Finance Yield Curve Analysis instructor Bill Addiss. You will learn how to determine fair values, yields and risk measures for a wide variety of instruments including government bonds, corporate bonds, mortgage securities, and fixed income derivatives. The curve may continue to flatten or invert, with or without a trade deal. Tudor notes that curve flatteners provide 'tail risk insurance' against the trades of long gold, short the US dollar, and long equities. There are T’note and T’bond futures contracts on the CME that allow the speculator to incorporate this same strategy in the futures market. Specifically, under QE3, the Fed is actively buying treasuries with maturities of 2-10 years (to the tune of $85 billion of a month). An inverted yield curve is the interest rate environment in which long-term debt instruments have a lower yield than short-term debt instruments. Two primary yield curve spread strategies are the “flattener” and the “steepener.”. Click here to download the course curriculum >. This decrease in demand for the longer-term Treasury should cause its price to fall, causing its yield to increase; the greater the yield difference, the more profitable the curve steepener trade strategy becomes. With a history dating back more than 90 years, the New York Institute of Finance is a global leader in training for the financial services and related industries with course topics covering investment banking, securities, retirement income planning, insurance, mutual funds, financial planning, finance and accounting, and lending. Under this strategy, the trader or portfolio manager would short sell the 10-year treasury and simultaneously buy long the 30-year bond. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/curve-steepener-trade.asp The yield curve flattens—that is, it becomes less curvy—when the difference between yields on short-term bonds and yields on long-term bonds decreases. The underlying concept of a flattening yield curve is straightforward. A humped yield curve is a relatively rare type of yield curve that results when the interest rates on medium-term fixed income securities are higher than the rates of both long and short-term instruments. Steepening? For many active market participants, successful bond trading is not merely picking a point along the yield curve, and speculating whether interest rates will go up or down, but rather to speculate on the shape and slope of … Also, what is a flattener? Additionally, whereas I used the cash treasury market to illustrate this potential opportunity, it can be utilized in other markets as well, specifically the futures market. The yield curve flattener has been one of the few consistent winners over the last few months. Frank and Pete define yield curve spreads, and they show you how to trade them with ease. Phillips, who examined U.K. unemployment and wages from 1861-1957. A par yield curve is a graphical representation of the yields of hypothetical Treasury securities with prices at par. The curve steepener trade involves an investor buying short-term Treasuries and shorting longer-term Treasuries. New York, NY 10038. 160 Broadway 15th floor June 25, 2018, 12:37 PM EDT ... puts their forecast for the 2- to 10-year curve flattening … yields on long-term bonds are rising faster than yields on short-term bonds. The carry of this trade would be much more complex - there will be carry from rolling down the yield curve, carry from time … My core trade on the yield curve is to be short, or underweight, the 3-7 year part of the yield curve and overweight 10-30, shaded toward 20-30. Once they reduce or eliminate this intervention, we can assume that the yields on these maturities should rise, relative to longer maturities, such as the 30-year bond. What is a flattener trade? Close. If it does the FOMC will be forced to ease monetary policy in order to support the U.S. economy. Understand the structure and trading conventions of fixed income markets, and learn how to construct, interpret and trade the term structure of interest rates. 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