You know, about 30 percent of the world’s trade flows through that part of the ocean. And so, you know, I’m confident that if one or two missiles were fired by an adversary that we would have a—we have the capability to defeat that missile. We’re actually growing, right? Excerpt from Term Paper : Ethical Issues Facing the Army Leadership Today The United States military is facing a host of ethical issues today. And if that’s where they’re going, then I think that changes kind of the calculus in this whole thing. And so that’s really the question: Will we honor our alliance to NATO or not? So they’re looking at, rather than go peer-to-peer, it’s almost an asymmetrical approach to what the strengths of our military is to build that up. So my plan for the evening is as follows: We’re going to talk a little bit about some issues that are on the news. But it’s their fight. And this is the first time I’ve ever seen the U.S. government acknowledge the use of offensive cyber capability, and make the point that it is just another weapon in the arsenal. And I think that question has to be asked and answered before we get into details about tactics and operations and all that kind of stuff. SANGER: We’re discussing a Ukraine-like situation but not limited to Ukraine, of course. The question is, you know, we’ve only got so many bullets. And so it is a changing dynamic. Intellectual property rights perhaps at play there. RICHARDSON: If I could go back, you know, I think that—to just kind of get back to this gray warfare or whatever it is, and the cyber piece, I mean, we should be very clear that there’s no more capable nation or actor in the world than the United States in terms of cyber warfare. But I thought Robert Haddick did a very good job articulating that in his book “Fire on the Water.”. And if you can launch a swarm of those, you might argue you have access denial. Transition 2021: What Will Biden’s Trade Policy Look Like? They’re repositioning some capabilities up towards Mosul. And yet you also have a discussion going on in the country about whether or not we even want to be engaged around the world as fully as we have been. I’d be remiss also if I didn’t mention that we just gave up one of our own here to work in tandem with two of these five men, and that’s former Senior Fellow Janine Davidson, who was recently sworn in as the 32nd undersecretary of the Navy. Maj. Gen. Malcom Frost, the former commander of the Army’s Initial Military Training Command, said that “the next existential threat we have…is the inability to man our military.”. And I commanded NATO ground forces in Afghanistan. It’s a changing dynamic. Bangladesh, by the year 2050 it could affect 18 million people with rising sea levels. So how did they get that way? Do we still need NATO or not? ), NELLER: You should all be so lucky. Admiral Zukunft, we had a discussion the other day about global warming and what potential threats that poses to populations, the possibility of new conflicts that come up as you have rising seas. But the bigger question is, once ISIS is destroyed, then what? And so we’re actually—you know, the secretary has been very successful in putting together a ship-building program that has us on a growth in terms of those numbers. MILLEY: We do that in the tank all the time as well. We realize we may have been a little bit too dogmatic in terms of, you know, phases of warfare and such, and our competitors are targeting that vulnerability and we’ll respond. There was a hand right over here. So there is the Sunni-Shia piece. The real end of the movie has to be when an Iraqi government can present itself and govern all people in Iraq. In late 2017, the Army’s Center for Initial Military Training began a study to look into improving the quality of recruits, both in discipline and physical fitness. Podcast We just have to understand that the texture has changed. It is a little less threatening when you put Coast Guard ships in. And I’m not going to speak to those authorities that are available to the president of the United States and the national leadership under authorities that they use to protect the nation. It became an alliance of choice as nations saw the benefits of being a member. Of the 70,000 recruited, 10 to 12 percent required waivers of existing “standards” and 1.9 percent were Category IV (CAT IV) recruits who scored between the 10th and 31st percentile on the Army’s aptitude test. We’ve got abilities. I wanted to ask about the role of chaplains in forward areas, if each of you could speak a little bit about that. It improves our training and our readiness, but it’s expensive because, you know, we put hours on planes and miles on vehicles and—. Now, the first vaccines are being distributed, spurring hope that the pandemic’s end is in sight. I mean, the Chinese would say that they’re doing what they’re doing with the land reclamation because of our behavior in the South China Sea, and we’re saying, no, we’re not doing it; we’re doing it in response to yours; we’re doing it in response to the things you’re doing. (Laughter. (Laughter.) (Applause.) I want to thank the audience for coming here and for such terrific questions. Soldiers routinely complain that they are living in damp houses without proper heating or insulation. (Applause.). On October 29, the Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence welcomed Blue Star Families to Brookings to discuss their 2015 Annual Military Family Lifestyle Survey, an … So if not NATO, then what? And they are out there. You still have some sequester issues going on. And it’s correct that there’s going to have to be some Sunni ground force. We’re just past the Wright flier stage, if you want to make an analogy to manned aircraft. Sixty-eight, in Czechoslovakia, Soviet forces were already there. Pure evidence that recidivism lives out here, that you guys were willing to come back. In fact, ours came out the day after. HRC resources Army units based on a Modification Table of Organization and Equipment (MTOE) or Table of Distribution and Allowances (TDA). He’s had that job now for about two years. And it’s happened in Crimea, it’s happened in Georgia, it’s happened in eastern Ukraine. It’s an integrated system. And so it really is a whole-of-government approach. They give us very broad authorities. December 21, 2020, Teaching Notes It goes back to how big the forces are. And so—and, you know, it’s not just us. And if General Thomas or General Votel were here they could wax much more eloquently about it. WELSH: OK, one last comment on that just real quickly. It involves not only naval forces, by also the rest of the military and our whole of government and a regional solution. So tell us a little bit about what you’re doing in the Pacific, something people don’t think all that much about because they think of—much more of your closer to home operations. It’s just to be better at what we’ve always done. Tell us a little bit about how we’re thinking differently today, if at all, about the contingency of being once again the conflict on the Korean Peninsula. The military services provide an array of financial management classes and counseling, but financial troubles remain a key problem for members and their families. In 1973, the soon-to-be most disgraced president of the United States implemented the all-volunteer force (AVF) and did away with conscription — a political and social act to atone for the sins of the most unpopular war in our country’s history and an unfair military draft. So it creates, you know, rules of engagement issues, which for a kinetic fight, you know, are complicated enough. They were part of the Warsaw Pact. We’re going to be at 308 (ships) by the end of, you know, 2020, 2021. Our sense is that China does not want to be a global hegemon, but they clearly want to be recognized as the regional leader in this area. Over the past 18 years of “endless war,” the Pentagon has adopted numerous measures to prop up the AVF. As Admiral Richardson said, you know, every day our networks are under attack and our ability to identify those people that are attacking us—I mean, you know, we can pour boiling oil over the wall and scrape them off the wall of the castle, but if I can see them over there in the woods forming up to make their attack, do I have the authority to—, SANGER: And right now you do not, except—. An area we didn’t talk about is Central and South America, our hemisphere. There’s also new domains from cyberspace, to outer space, to the Arctic. Yeah, we just don’t know. A 2005 Rand Corp. study identified that CAT IV soldiers perform between 20.4 and 30.0 percent less effectively than higher scoring recruits. SANGER: Well, thank you. And I should also say that all five have been read their Miranda rights. So you want to make—you know, you want to build public trust, one, that you’ll produce outcomes but, two, you’ll be a good steward of the resources you invested in. So the military is not—and we’re part of the national elements of power. Lo and behold, the racing stripe, the lettering, looks mighty familiar to us. I think that’s the way to go to keep the world a stable and safe place. It’s not moving your families around. Their finances are under intense pressure. Conscription using a lottery based system would be a fair, efficient, sustainable, legal and proven alternative to fixing the military's recruiting problem, says the author of this commentary. (Laughter.). And we talked earlier about the Internet and cyberwarfare. Military officers behaving badly have been making headlines. They’ve been active in there. So what we’ve done—and this is more of a special operations thing. And the current leader has taken that to the next level. by Claire Felter HAASS: And David will properly introduce all five of these gentlemen. Has been the commander of naval submarine forces. (Laughter.). There’s no doubt about it. SANGER: When I walk through your building, on those days that they let me in, I hear people say, you know, we’re not going to accomplish the task of actually destroying them until we have a Sunni force on the ground that can take them on on the ground in a way that President Obama has clearly been unwilling to allow American forces to go do, given the experiences of Iraq and Afghanistan. Tell us a little bit about what your concerns are there. NELLER: And so what I would suggest to you, Father, is what we need is we need more chaplains. So we think that’s the way to go. I’m not going to speak for my fellows up here, but I think we generally agree with that. | Military Times Reports, Money Minute: Dispelling myths about VA home loans, An open letter to VA Secretary-designate McDonough, US Reps. Moulton and Banks: The future of defense is in public-private partnerships, US Air Force chief of staff: How to prepare the service for tomorrow’s fight, Chief of US Army Futures Command: The service is experiencing a technological evolution, Former Pentagon comptroller: Observations and opportunities for America’s defense budget, © 2021 Sightline Media Group. They may be connected to manned platforms. by Jennifer Hillman and Matthias Matthijs Will we ever have everything we need in our kit? We’ve re-established that force presence there, so you’ve got the full complement of Third Marine Expeditionary Force that’s there with air, ground, and logistics. I can assure you from personal witness that chaplains are out there. General Neller has been division commander and assistant division commander for the First and Second Marine Divisions, president of Marine Corps University, a number of joint assignments. SANGER: So who wants to be the next Internet sensation? And their ability to move inside their own territory and their interior lines has been significantly degraded. But it’s never going to be—in my lifetime, it will not be—which is about 30 years—(laughter)—it will not be a huge, huge shift, because we’re still figuring out how to use these things. And so if you look at—if you want to study the United States, really it’s like going back to Mahan. Tonight marks the 15th time that CFR has hosted the service chiefs. CNBC's Michelle Caruso-Cabrera reports on the U.S. defense budget and the top five challenges facing the U.S. military. And every time we got to a hard question General Milley said: And I think that’s for—and he named somebody who wasn’t on the call. If conscription were implemented, many would still volunteer but it is reasonable to assume that a higher quality force could be generated from a pool of 1,020,000 than from a pool of 180,000. Well, first if I could just sort of dispel the fact that we’re shrinking. And now, you know, the China coast guard is building 10,000-ton cruisers. So, today, 330 million Americans lay claim to rights, liberties, and privileges that not one of them is obligated to protect and defend. (Laughs, laughter.) (Laughter.). NELLER: I mean, cyber causes us problems because we’re a nation of laws and we respect the rights of every citizen in this room. By giving us your email, you are opting in to the Early Bird Brief. Get the military's most comprehensive news and information every morning. So last fall we adjusted that campaign plan, and then went forward and sought the permission of the senior leaders of the United States. How will President-Elect Joe Biden proceed. And I don’t think the smartest strategic move is to put a lot of American soldiers on the ground. "There were 500 women on a 5,000 man ship," Noble says, describing one of her later opportunities for sea duty. The Army ultimately enlisted 70,000, a shortfall of 7,600. I also want to warn them that for the first time this event is on the record. Q: I’m Padma Desai, economics professor at Columbia University. Of the many hurdles military veterans face in America today, they name adjusting back to everyday life as the most significant challenge. I mean, I’ve been to Aleppo 25 times in the last four years but—I’ve met many special forces from the United States. This is different than, you know, attacking networks and water systems and all that. with James M. Lindsay, Edward Alden and Jennifer Hillman OK, let’s start with the NATO question, which was, do we still need it? And so, you know, we’re sustaining hundreds of thousands of attacks, you know, per day. In fact, we don’t even have a coast guard, let alone a navy. Last year, the Army’s initial recruiting goal was 80,000 enlistees. I’ve been out to Majuro, to the Marshall Islands. Are you normalizing cyberwarfare, even while we’re using it against an enemy like ISIS? Twice he’s been a member of Times reporting teams that won the Pulitzer Prize. And I’ve been tracking both the intel and from persona knowledge, talking to commanders, et cetera. You may not have seen them but they’re there. I think clearly if you go to the Baltic States and talk to them, they’re concerned. And it looks like that is the trend that is continuing. Three Issues Facing Veterans In Your Community. The point is that it is a new tool with a whole lot of people who are involved in using it, from the people actually operating the controls, the people who are watching the feeds that it sends it, to the people who make the decisions on what to do with that information. And from an Air Force perspective, you can attack all those different pieces simultaneously. For the first time you could have a North Korean nuclear weapon that can reach American forces. And there’s partners all over the world watching this. And previous to that he was commander of the Coast Guard Pacific area. That’s the active Army, the regular Army. We have 42 counter-drug agreements that allow us to use deadly force right up to the shoreline of another country. You know, wingmen who can do different tasks for a pilot in an F-35, is an example. And welcome in particular to the Robert B. McKeon Endowed Series on Military Strategy and Leadership. And we’re very grateful to see his wife Claire here tonight—with us tonight, to celebrate this important part of Bob’s considerable legacy. SANGER: Admiral Richardson, we ran a story last winter, my colleague Eric Schmitt and I, about Russian submarine patrols that appeared to be looking at, among other things, the undersea cables that still snake across the Atlantic and Pacific. One proposal that may do more harm than help is to enlist immature, non-deployable 16-year-olds into our military who are unlikely to succeed in basic training or make it through their initial term of enlistment. December 30, 2020. Fear the promise of transformative, leap-ahead, game-changing, and revolutionary technological solutions. Absolutely not. We can use them to observe movement. SANGER: Well, we’re in the midst of a campaign that may actually be addressing that some in the next few months. And we also have a number of members who are tuning in right now over a webcast and we’ll be getting some questions in from them that I’ll be mixing in with this. And so that, I think, is the first mission there, is to preserve our ability to do that, preserve our access through that part of the world. The other key piece in this—if you’re going to build public trust to invest in a service—we doubled down on our financial auditing process. I thought that the enemy, ISIS, had—essentially had the strategic initiative. As we have seen, China has worked bilaterally with the ASEAN members. (Laughter.) As you think about it, you’re seeing renewed air patrols out along in Europe. And you’re seeing today bits and pieces of it in the news. The challenges facing the British Army. Q: Thank you, gentlemen. SANGER: China is a long-term challenge, for the reasons we’ve discussed. OK. RICHARDSON: A classic ploy, drive the wedge, you know. And new partnerships forming, even after years and decades of, you know, people not working as closely together. MILLEY: I would just advocate, you know, if you haven’t read the book by Robert Haddick called “Fire on the Water,” which really delineates this whole access denial. This year is redolent with anniversaries. HAASS: Well, good evening and welcome to the Council on Foreign Relations. That’s their job. (Laughter.). So it’s not—. Consider the arithmetic. One, Admiral Zukunft of the Coast Guard, for the second time. (Laughter. (Laughter. This would be directed to General Milley. MILLEY: He’s a little green man. They approved that. I mean, that’s the—you know, Sun Tzu, the ability to defeat your enemy without having to fight them. And we’ve put sensors orbiting over the battlespace. Some of the provocative activities of Russian President Vladimir Putin—a Russian fighter plane zooms into Lithuanian territory, a Russian submarine floats in and out of Swedish waters in the Baltic Sea—can we handle these activities beyond cyber monitoring militarily? NELLER: If that doesn’t happen, like it didn’t happen after 2011—. To ask these and other questions, it’s now my pleasure to introduce tonight’s presider, David Sanger. Each year, the military must recruit about 150,000 enlistees. NELLER: There’s no Marine Corps unit—just like an Army unit or a Navy ship that sails or an Air Force squadron or Coast Guard ship—that doesn’t go where they go forward—. And we’re honored to have all of them here with us tonight, including three for the first time. At the same time the CNO had to decommission the Perry class frigates, which were doing the lion’s share of duty. (Laughter.) And so as you’ve seen the dynamic really change there, you’re seeing partnerships emerging with nations in that region that have, you know, really grown, particularly recently. The European Union and the United Kingdom came to a last-minute trade deal on Christmas Eve, narrowly averting the hardest of all potential Brexits. We are just past that step in the unmanned world. SANGER: Yeah. 70% of Millennial military families believe two incomes are vital to their family’s well-being. So that means that not only are the answers on the record, the questions are on the record. Can anyone here name eight out of the 10 most violent countries in the world? And they’re huge combat multipliers because, as General Milley says, even though if you went—whatever chapel you would go based on your perspective faith, there may not be a lot of people at church, but when people start shooting at you, everybody gets religion. And it’s very easy to think in two-, four-, and six-year terms and election cycles and say, well, it won’t happen on my watch. And this program is but one example of how the U.S. military makes a sustained investment in its most valuable asset, and that’s America’s men and women in uniform. Posted by Nicole Smith, Dec 7, 2011 ... a problem the military does not want yet continues to promote. It’s really a privilege, thank you. This aligns with previous research to the same effect, in particular a report published in the U.S. Army War College Quarterly, Parameters: “The Case for Megacities.” The authors make the case that, “The Army m… The gentleman right back here. And so we—you know, we design those very carefully. And as their economies are very codependent, it’s very easy for the ASEAN countries to be splintered off and to get everyone, you know, from a regional approach. Is it more F-35s? Thank you, Richard. Let’s develop a fully developed air campaign to get at all of those and then, you know, extend it ever beyond that so that we’re looking at every tool that we’ve got to really, you know, as the president wants us to do, is to crush this enemy. The very first thing that has to be answered is what’s the role of the United States in the world? SANGER: And even without simultaneity, you have the pivot. Military members endure a lifestyle unlike any other, and, in kind, can be affected by a unique set of health and wellness issues. That is mach speech for a glacier. MILLEY: That’s what we’re trying to achieve. And it’s an existential threat to them. NELLER: Could I just—on this question I agree with Mark about the Iraqi security forces. And that’s quite a bit different than what I saw in the fall. We think it is. Approximately 4 million Americans turn 18 each year, but only 30 percent of them can meet the minimum requirements for enlistment, leaving 1.2 million able to serve. by Brandon Valeriano It’s interesting with some countries is that when you do things in response to their actions and they then accuse you of doing something to aggravate them, which causes them to do something. And so we’re seeing that we’re confronted with a new, you know, form of competition here. And you all have a third job as diplomats in many ways. Many times, a veteran just needs a helping hand, like Edward Andruskieicz, of Lynn, Massachusetts. SANGER: And how does that change the calculus? We’ve been that since World War II, and that’s been part of what we’ve done in this country, not for gain but for economic advantage for everybody, for the opportunity for people to establish their own way of life. How are we doing on making the pivot a reality at this point? What’s on your wish list? MILLEY: The Marines can deal with it. So the question is, you know, is that sufficient capacity and capability to do the various national strategies? They’re going to be successful. Would lowering the age of recruitment fix the military’s recruiting worries? But study, you know, our vulnerabilities. SANGER: Well, I want to thank all five of you. We’re going to be surprised. It depends, though, if you get into a large exchange, God forbid. I haven’t seen one chaplain. And how do you think we’re doing on it today? Yes, we still need NATO. About 70 percent of casualties have been Army. I know that everyone here joins me in thanking the chiefs for taking the time out of their schedules to be with us tonight, but more importantly I know everyone here joins me in thanking them for what they do for all of us, the other 364 days a year. I think we need to make sure that we engage not only the military element of power, but also the diplomatic and economic, which are extremely important in that world. Finally, CFR’s fortunate enough to be one of the institutions with which the U.S. military partners. (Laughter.) We’ve got other interceptors. So our adversaries—not necessarily North Korea but other countries like Iran—have developed a very large inventory of short-, medium-range missiles that are just conventional weaponry, but they could very easily overwhelm, you know, a certain number of Patriot batteries or other capabilities that have a capability to shoot them down. The answer to that is probably no. The Army is struggling to meet its recruiting goals as it seeks to expand. ), WELSH: Probably not—(laughter)—although you’d all look really good sitting in it, just like we do. And we came up with a campaign plan. So we’re at 272 (ships) right now. There is no doubt that there is a serious problem in manning the American military. RICHARDSON: Well, I think the point is that—we can decide it, but the fact is it’s a pretty hot war in cyber—in the cyber domain going on right now. Some, for sure, to train, advise, assist, enable, to provide some forward advisory effort to bring in fires from either naval or air platforms and to help the Iraqi Security Forces to build up their capabilities, and the Kurdish forces. And there are climatologists today that say the fuse has already been lit. SANGER: Directed-energy antimissile, what was imagined back in the Reagan era but is now actually, you think, getting closer to a reality. And so in that regard, it’s a natural evolution of warfare. I’m just curious. SANGER: General Welsh, one of the notable elements of this war against ISIS, but before that against al-Qaida, and before that generally in Afghanistan and Iraq, has been the astounding use by the Air Force and also by the CIA, but mostly by the Air Force, of unmanned vehicles. You obviously have people from Cyber Command who are working alongside you. What can DOD do and what can the whole of government do to deal with those kinds of problems? You know, we are—we cannot just sit there. The breaching of the U.S. Capitol and disruption of the presidential succession by a pro-Trump mob has inflicted lasting damage on the nation’s image as a bastion of democracy. The good overrides the bad—always has, always will. That’s what they do. ZUKUNFT: I’ll make—I’ll make this a twofer, actually. President Cerén in El Salvador, President Varela in Panama, President Hernández in Honduras is looking to the United States and saying, we can’t fight this alone. I’m Richard Haass. So what we’ve done essentially has extended sensors. Assessing President Trump’s Legacy of Cyber Confusion, Blog Post We have the ability to track and find and see, and given—it’s not perfect but it’s better than what anybody else has got. And let’s make it a little more complicated by asking the question, do we still need it if the NATO members other than the United States don’t pay a larger and larger share? New questions regarding financial and human resources. Their moral has gone down. Do you agree with that after your—. This program goes back more than half a century now, and has hosted some 140 military officers. SANGER: And what will that be 10 years from now, do you think? The issues are less military than political. The problem is not the military’s. Why did we have over 60,000 unaccompanied minors show up via human traffickers at our Southwest border? Is it possible? A propitious year, it might be supposed, to consider the future of land warfare. And I think whatever they’re doing now, they are still a very capable military and they clearly have shown an intent to be disruptive, at least in the region. But at the same time, I think we have to make it very clear that, one, we’re going to defend ourselves and we’re going to defend the homeland and we’re going to defend our allies. (Laughter. And so we are where we are, doing what we’re doing. SANGER: General Neller, I was just back from a week in South Korea last week, and it’s pretty obvious that we’ve seen a big ramp-up by the North Koreans in activity in just the past six months—missile tests, one nuclear test, the possibility of another one ahead of their Workers’ Party Congress, which meets for the first time in 36 years later on this week. SANGER: Yeah, who’s often on this stage as well. It’s always one of the most interesting and invigorating evenings at the Council, and it reminds you that you really have multiple jobs here. NELLER: Well, since I’ve been in service, Korea was always the big fight, or potentially the big fight, because of the politics involved and the aggressive nature of the North Koreans, regardless of who the leader was. So the secretary of defense has talked about the five big areas of effort for the military these days: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and, of course, the counterterrorism mission. That causes us to deploy. They’re being hugely successful in Anbar right now. MILLEY: Oh, I could have sworn I heard Neller. And of course, also was in Afghanistan, served in the operation staff of the Joint Staff, military assistant to the secretary of defense I guess when it was Bob Gates, is that right? And Military Times look at where your MRE's come from, on Defense News Weekly for Jan. 9, 2021. Today's Army is the most well-equipped and most responsive in its well-storied history. MILLEY: That’s Reserve, the Guard, and the regular Army. We’re working with them right now to sign Conduct for Unplanned Encounters at Sea so they won’t take these actions against our Navy and other forces as well, but at least to have that open and frank dialogue for the very same reasons that are mentioned here. Sexual assault about two years believe two incomes are vital to their family s! Have an indigenous force recruit about 150,000 enlistees long-term challenge, especially the. Other big challenges, and Democracy, in the Pacific is—happens in multiple domains at.. Most significant challenge get the military when fighting unconventional warfare numbers again challenges to and... Lion ’ s well-being the AVF the territory of the force attacking networks and water systems all! Another border, could you stop them we ever have everything we need we... Sea duty all together and problems facing the military today ’ ve only got so many bullets 20.4 and percent! 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